Oct. 2010 Politics Part 1

Part 1 of 3: Obama at 21 Months

Over the last few months several people have asked me if I was still happy with my decision to vote for a Democrat in the last presidential election. And the question is often asked with a tone that suggests that I shouldn’t be. After all, with nearly 21 months in office he has failed to transform a country that was in the middle of the worst recession since the great depression into Utopia. Our streets are not paved with gold and there isn’t a unicorn in every pot. Indeed – How could I POSSIBLY be happy?

Admittedly, a few things haven’t gone as smoothly as hoped. But, unlike many, I think I had fairly realistic expectations when I voted for Barack Obama. Even before he was elected I accepted the fact that he is a mere mortal who would be taking over during troubled times. I also knew that there is only so much that one man, or even all of government, can do to turn things around. I expected setbacks and missteps. I hoped for a leader with a good message who could make tough decisions for the good of our country as a whole. I wanted things to get better.

And things have gotten better. Certainly not as fast or as well as many have hoped, but many key indicators are headed in the right direction. “Technically” the recession is over (if you believe the economists) and several stock indices are up over 30% since Obama took office. (Over 30% in 21 months – I wish I could do that EVERY 21 months.) Inventory levels, productivity, consumer debt… statistic after statistic we see things moving in the right direction.

But it doesn’t FEEL like things are getting better because the jobs aren’t coming back fast enough and that’s what everybody sees. Yet even with regard to jobs the statistics are at least headed in the right direction. We were losing about half a million jobs per month when Obama took office. It took a few months to stop the bleeding but we’ve seen private company payroll increases for 9 straight months – every month so far in this year. The gains have been minimal but it’s a start. Economists will tell you that employment statistics are lagging indicators – which is to say that they are some of the last to recover when recessions occur. They are certainly being proven right with regard to this recent recession.

While I don’t agree with all of the decisions coming out of Washington, I do think that White House policies have helped a recovery more than they have hindered. More importantly, some of the legislative accomplishments should have positive long-term effects. Stay tuned over the next few days for some specific thoughts on the following:

Part II: Obamacare, Financial Reform, War, and some miscellaneous random thoughts.

Part III: TARP, Stimulus, and extension of the Bush tax cuts.

With an election just over a week away, I’m not so naïve as to think that my ramblings on these topics will sway anyone from once side to the other. I just think it’s good to summarize some thoughts on the hot topics. Besides – no matter who wins next month and no matter which party controls the House and the Senate, we are in for more political stupidity from Washington. As for Obama…

After 21 months I see a president, not unlike many of his predecessors, who is discouraged by the lack of power to get certain things done. Apparently many things can’t get done without an act of Congress. Literally. And Congress, even if controlled by your own political party, isn’t always willing to play along.

I see a man who has stuck by his core messages and who has tried to govern from somewhere close to political center even when pundits try to characterize him as a liberal whack-job because of his political party affiliation. If you refrain from putting words in his mouth and pay attention you might notice that some of his ineffectiveness is attributable to the fact that his own party doesn’t think he’s liberal enough. In this political climate, there appears to be no room for compromise in the House or Senate because that is seen as fraternizing with the enemy. It doesn’t matter what is good or bad for the country. All that matters is pleasing your political base so that you can get votes and keep your job.

Some people like to blame the president for not bridging the gap, but the gap has never been this wide and I don’t think anyone sitting in the Oval Office could build a bridge big enough. Bring Reagan back from the dead and give him a ruler to slap wrists and you still wouldn’t be successful.

Speaking of Reagan, a final thought for today – When Ronald Reagan took office we were in a recession and he started with an approval rating somewhere around 60%. During his first two years in office the economy continued to struggle and his approval rating slid until it hit a low point around 40% early in his third year. About half way through his third year the economy and his approval rating began to recover. Anyone else see an eerie pattern starting to form?

Stay tuned for parts II and III of this series. I welcome comments and criticisms. Use the comment feature below or you can email your confidential thoughts to christopher@grasshutandcoconuts.com.