American Idol – Adam vs. Kris
I know several of you missed this week’s performances because you opted to watch something more important – Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals: Wings vs. Blackhawks. I (of course) sacrificed for my fans and watched American Idol even though it’s somewhat pointless since we already know who will win. Ryan pretty much let it slip last week.
Oh? You didn’t catch that? Allow me to recap and help you with the math.
At the beginning of last week’s show Ryan noted that “over 88 million votes came in” with “just over one million votes separating the top two” contestants. They (of course) didn’t mention who had more votes, but let’s just say it was Adam. Sounds pretty close to call – probably less than 2 percent of all the votes separated Adam and Kris. Even I won’t deny that a two percent swing is entirely possible week-to-week. But what about Danny? How many votes did last week’s “loser” get?
Danny was never in the bottom three and he had a huge fan base. Would anyone be surprised if he got 20% of last week’s votes? 25%? 30%?
Let’s just say for the sake of argument that Danny only got about 20% of the votes, so almost 18 million. (I’m sure he got more.) That leaves about 35.5 million votes for Adam and 34.5 million for Kris.
Let’s not be naïve… At this stage of the competition it’s no longer about who is the better singer. It’s very much about who has built the bigger fan base. Both Adam and Kris are very talented, but that doesn’t matter anymore. I submit that based on last week, they have fan bases that are roughly equal in size. So now it’s up to both of them to woo Danny’s fans.
Based on the type of artist they’ve presented themselves to be, which one is more likely to capitalize on Danny’s departure? Are people who were voting for Danny more likely to vote for Adam or Kris? I refer you back to my article two weeks ago. Kris will LOCK up this vote.
So here’s the math:
May 12th = less than 2% of the votes separate Adam and Kris.
May 17th possible scenario: 40% of Danny voters throw up their hands and say “F— it, I’m not voting for ANYONE. This show SUCKS.” 10% of Danny voters are rebels and vote for Adam. The other 50% vote for Kris, who’s style is closer to their beloved Danny.
Assuming the same voters as last week:
Adam = 35.5 million + 10% of 18 million = 37.3 million.
Kris = 34.5 million + 50% of 18 million = 43.5 million.
Add several million votes because it’s the finale but, at the end of the day, Kris will get 54% or more of the total making him the winner. Simple math with a pinch of demographics and dash of human nature.
As for this week’s performances… does it even matter? Here’s the recap:
First Song – Favorite from the Season
Adam – Dressed all in black, including a wool trench coat with leather sleeves from the elbow down, he made a nice entrance and was surrounded by dry ice fog. He made the right song choice by going back to his best performance of the season, “Mad World,” and it was nearly as good. I thought it was better the first time but I guess I can’t argue with those who thought this performance was better. Yea, yea… great stuff.
Kris – White tee shirt and black vest with jeans. He coulda shaved… finale after all. Even Simon wore a dress shirt and suit jacket instead of a $3 tee shirt, although he needs to learn how to actually BUTTON his shirt. Kris also chose wisely and reprised “Ain’t no Sunshine.” Judges loved it – as they should.
Essentially they both picked the right song and they both did a great job. You know who didn’t do a good job? Whomever is in charge of Randy’s wardrobe. What was with that shirt-tie combo?
Second song – Simon Fuller Choice
Adam – Silvery gray suit, white shirt, blue tie. Hated it. Look, he sang ok, but I thought it was a terrible song choice for him. And of course he threw in some screeching for no apparent reason. Judges LOVED it – all of them. Clearly they are all dippin’ into Paula’s stash. Change is Gonna Come, but it didn’t come fast enough for me. I thought Sayesha did better with this song when the judges picked it for her last season. No surprise if you don’t remember it, she didn’t knock it out of the park either and she got booted that week (3rd place).
Kris – Dressed to sing on the beach in a long sleeve grey tee and jeans. The judges all kinda panned it but I thought it was really good. I disagree with Simon who said he didn’t do enough with it to make it his own. I can see where it may have been lost a bit in the venue – cool and hip “basement” performance in a huge theatre. But on TV it was fantastic. I’ll tell you What’s Goin’ On… Kris is on his way to winning.
Eh… Adam fans will like Adam, Kris fans will like Kris. This bodes well for Kris if the math above proves out.
I kinda liked Paul’s satiny green dress. It went well with her oompa loompa orange fake tan.
Third Song – The Kara and company crap
Instead of a contest winning song, Kara apparently worked into her contract that she could be one of the writers for the crappy song that the contestants are forced to sing. And it was, in fact, crap.
Adam – Seriously… I readily admit that he had some great performances this season. But apparently there were too many boundaries for him to properly sing “No Boundaries.” Even Adam fans are probably scratching their heads and wondering “why did they make him sing that?” Simon was all but imploring viewers to pretend they hadn’t seen this performance and vote based on his other songs. I said it two weeks ago – the forced song will be his downfall. Bonus for Kris that it was the last song.
Kris – The judges all belong in a rehab. Kris did WAY better than Adam on this one. I can hear this song making it to the radio if Kris sings it. All things considered, he did a great job with it. I can’t imagine it will be a top 10 hit, because it’s a CRAP song. But Kris made it believable and it was far less irritating than when Adam sang it.
How many more times can I say “crap” in reference to this song?
What’s the difference between “No Boundaries” and a sack of crap?
Answer: the sack.
Based on tonight’s performances and the season as a whole – Kris gets my votes. Not that I actually vote. Olive – back me up here. ;-)
Prediction: Kris Allen – Winner of American Idol Season 8.
Christopher
Themocracy
Well, I am proud to say that I missed AI, Dancing & the Game because I attended my daughter’s Honors Convocation Ceremony for her Senior Year! Yahoo Nikki!!
I must say I was the doubter on Chris and I am not so sure an upset is not possible. We will see tonight. His good ol american charm may be a thing with US. Look at dancing with stars last night. US olympian versus Frenchy – US prevailed. Don’t get me wrong, I still strongly believe Adam is more versatile and powerful a singer.
Sounds like Sharon is mentally preparing herself to buy me some eats!
It’s nice to see that you are using not only your fashion commentary talents, but you have dipped into your high school statistics class as well.
As proud as I am that I have NEVER watched this in years past, I have enjoyed the DVR version at your home. If the judges could be silenced, then the entertainment value and the talent would show through emensely.
Math aside, I am still an Adam fan. Overall a better performer and better singer (Even with the lizard tongue screeches). Your right, the last song was crap, but Kris didn’t do much better. Song was crap for both of them. I’m still voting for Adam. I may get evicted, but my landlord can go pound sand. Kris’s 15 minutes are almost up.
I do so enjoy reading your musings, I will miss them when the season ends. I must admit I have never seen the show, I repeat never. However, I feel after reading your commentaries I could fake it in a roomful of people…..
Damn, at least my rent won’t go up!!
Well your reasoning was sound, if I voted (which I don’t) I would have voted for Chris cause I was a Danny fan. I am thrilled I don’t have to hear another “lizard tongue screach” again. Danny and Chris will go on to be midland stars and Adam with go on to play Judas in an off-broadway performance of Jesus Christ Super Star–the one place the screach works.
Oh Chris I’m going to miss reading this each week. I just went back and read what you said about Kris and Adam in weeks past. Your math scenario cracks me up and makes me realize you love numbers in addition to having a good ear for music and fashion!
Kyle – you are so right on about Adam as Judas in Jesus Christ Super Star, I love that musical.